Yelimay Semey 2 vs Akademiya Ontustik Prediction & Preview
1st Division (Kazakhstan) · Sep 10, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1ST DIVISION (KAZAKHSTAN)
Yelimay Semey 2 vs Akademiya Ontustik
Model pick: Akademiya Ontustik (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.0 – 1.54
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yelimay Semey 2 | Akademiya Ontustik |
|---|
| League position | #13 (12 pts) | #4 (39 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 2.3 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 20% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.4 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
*Yelimay Semey 2 shown at home, Akademiya Ontustik shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yelimay Semey 2 — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Akademiya Ontustik — last 5
WDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yelimay Semey 2 (home) | Akademiya Ontustik (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-7 in 10 (0.8 / 2.3 goals per game) | 5-2-3 in 10 (1.5 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 75% |
1st Division (Kazakhstan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.31
Home wins: 54%
Draws: 13%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 49%
Use these 1st Division (Kazakhstan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.0 vs 1.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Yelimay Semey 2 or draw (1X) | 50% |
| Double chance — Akademiya Ontustik or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Yelimay Semey 2 clean sheet | 21% |
| Akademiya Ontustik clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Akademiya Ontustik is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, Akademiya Ontustik edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yelimay Semey 2 vs Akademiya Ontustik — FAQ
Who will win Yelimay Semey 2 vs Akademiya Ontustik?
Our statistical model makes Akademiya Ontustik the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Yelimay Semey 2 26%, draw 27%, Akademiya Ontustik 47%.
Will both teams score in Yelimay Semey 2 vs Akademiya Ontustik?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Yelimay Semey 2 vs Akademiya Ontustik?
Expected goals are 1.0 for Yelimay Semey 2 and 1.54 for Akademiya Ontustik — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yelimay Semey 2 vs Akademiya Ontustik?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (12%). Double chance for Yelimay Semey 2 or draw is 50%.