Yenisey vs Neftekhimik Prediction & Preview
1-division (Russia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-DIVISION (RUSSIA)
Yenisey vs Neftekhimik
Model pick: Yenisey (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.66 – 0.52
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yenisey | Neftekhimik |
|---|
| League position | #11 (10 pts) | #12 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 2.0 |
*Yenisey shown at home, Neftekhimik shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yenisey — last 5
DDDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Neftekhimik — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yenisey (home) | Neftekhimik (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-3-0 in 4 (1.5 / 0.8 goals per game) | 2-0-2 in 4 (0.8 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 40% |
1-division (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 49%
Use these 1-division (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.66 vs 0.52):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Yenisey or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Neftekhimik or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Yenisey clean sheet | 59% |
| Neftekhimik clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Yenisey is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Yenisey are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yenisey vs Neftekhimik — FAQ
Who will win Yenisey vs Neftekhimik?
Our statistical model makes Yenisey the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Yenisey 56%, draw 26%, Neftekhimik 18%.
Will both teams score in Yenisey vs Neftekhimik?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Yenisey vs Neftekhimik?
Expected goals are 1.66 for Yenisey and 0.52 for Neftekhimik — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yenisey vs Neftekhimik?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Yenisey or draw is 89%.