Yokohama vs Júbilo Iwata Prediction & Preview
J2-League (Japan) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 09:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
J2-LEAGUE (JAPAN)
Yokohama vs Júbilo Iwata
Model pick: Yokohama (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.63 – 1.1
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yokohama | Júbilo Iwata |
|---|
| League position | #4 (29 pts) | #8 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.1 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 56% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
*Yokohama shown at home, Júbilo Iwata shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yokohama — last 5
LLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Júbilo Iwata — last 5
WDWDD
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yokohama (home) | Júbilo Iwata (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-5 in 9 (2.1 / 1.6 goals per game) | 5-0-4 in 9 (1.4 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 46% |
J2-League (Japan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.48
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these J2-League (Japan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.63 vs 1.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Yokohama or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Júbilo Iwata or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Yokohama clean sheet | 33% |
| Júbilo Iwata clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Yokohama is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Yokohama are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yokohama vs Júbilo Iwata — FAQ
Who will win Yokohama vs Júbilo Iwata?
Our statistical model makes Yokohama the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Yokohama 47%, draw 26%, Júbilo Iwata 27%.
Will both teams score in Yokohama vs Júbilo Iwata?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Yokohama vs Júbilo Iwata?
Expected goals are 1.63 for Yokohama and 1.1 for Júbilo Iwata — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yokohama vs Júbilo Iwata?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Yokohama or draw is 74%.