Yongin City vs Busan IPark Prediction & Preview
K League 2 (South Korea) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 10:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 2 (SOUTH KOREA)
Yongin City vs Busan IPark
Model pick: Busan IPark (59%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.77 – 1.86
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yongin City | Busan IPark |
|---|
| League position | #12 (19 pts) | #2 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.6 | 2.0 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 10% | 56% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Yongin City shown at home, Busan IPark shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yongin City — last 5
DLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 6% of the time; 71% of home games go over 2.5.
Busan IPark — last 5
WWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yongin City (home) | Busan IPark (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-5-4 in 10 (1.2 / 1.6 goals per game) | 5-1-3 in 9 (2.0 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 6% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 41% |
K League 2 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.51
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%
Use these K League 2 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.77 vs 1.86):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Yongin City or draw (1X) | 37% |
| Double chance — Busan IPark or draw (X2) | 85% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Yongin City clean sheet | 16% |
| Busan IPark clean sheet | 46% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Busan IPark is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. Despite playing away, Busan IPark edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yongin City vs Busan IPark — FAQ
Who will win Yongin City vs Busan IPark?
Our statistical model makes Busan IPark the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: Yongin City 17%, draw 24%, Busan IPark 59%.
Will both teams score in Yongin City vs Busan IPark?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Yongin City vs Busan IPark?
Expected goals are 0.77 for Yongin City and 1.86 for Busan IPark — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yongin City vs Busan IPark?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Yongin City or draw is 37%.