Yongin City vs Suwon Prediction & Preview
K League 2 (South Korea) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 2 (SOUTH KOREA)
Yongin City vs Suwon
Model pick: Suwon (55%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.13 – 2.08
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yongin City | Suwon |
|---|
| League position | #11 (25 pts) | #2 (43 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.9 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 18% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 |
*Yongin City shown at home, Suwon shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yongin City — last 5
DDWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 11% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Suwon — last 5
LWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yongin City (home) | Suwon (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-5-4 in 11 (1.3 / 1.5 goals per game) | 6-3-3 in 12 (1.9 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 11% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 47% |
K League 2 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.51
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%
Use these K League 2 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.13 vs 2.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Yongin City or draw (1X) | 41% |
| Double chance — Suwon or draw (X2) | 80% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Yongin City clean sheet | 12% |
| Suwon clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Suwon is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Despite playing away, Suwon edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yongin City vs Suwon — FAQ
Who will win Yongin City vs Suwon?
Our statistical model makes Suwon the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Yongin City 22%, draw 23%, Suwon 55%.
Will both teams score in Yongin City vs Suwon?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Yongin City vs Suwon?
Expected goals are 1.13 for Yongin City and 2.08 for Suwon — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yongin City vs Suwon?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (10%). Double chance for Yongin City or draw is 41%.