Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Rongcheng Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Rongcheng
Model pick: Chengdu Rongcheng (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.36 – 1.82
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 64%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yunnan Yukun | Chengdu Rongcheng |
|---|
| League position | #5 (28 pts) | #1 (45 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 1.8 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 60% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 3.0 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
*Yunnan Yukun shown at home, Chengdu Rongcheng shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yunnan Yukun — last 5
LDDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 21% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Chengdu Rongcheng — last 5
DDDDD
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yunnan Yukun (home) | Chengdu Rongcheng (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-3 in 10 (2.2 / 1.8 goals per game) | 6-3-1 in 10 (1.7 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 21% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 74% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 47% |
| Top scorer | Oscar Taty Maritu (14) | – |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.36 vs 1.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Yunnan Yukun or draw (1X) | 52% |
| Double chance — Chengdu Rongcheng or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Yunnan Yukun clean sheet | 16% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chengdu Rongcheng is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, Chengdu Rongcheng edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Rongcheng — FAQ
Who will win Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Rongcheng?
Our statistical model makes Chengdu Rongcheng the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 28%, draw 24%, Chengdu Rongcheng 47%.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Rongcheng?
The model gives a 64% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Rongcheng?
Expected goals are 1.36 for Yunnan Yukun and 1.82 for Chengdu Rongcheng — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Rongcheng?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Yunnan Yukun or draw is 52%.