Yunnan Yukun vs Liaoning Tieren Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 11:35 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Yunnan Yukun vs Liaoning Tieren
Model pick: Yunnan Yukun (51%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.09 – 1.58
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 65%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yunnan Yukun | Liaoning Tieren |
|---|
| League position | #6 (35 pts) | #13 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 58% | 9% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.6 | 1.8 / 2.0 |
*Yunnan Yukun shown at home, Liaoning Tieren shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yunnan Yukun — last 5
LWWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Liaoning Tieren — last 5
WLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yunnan Yukun (home) | Liaoning Tieren (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-2-3 in 12 (2.2 / 1.6 goals per game) | 1-3-7 in 11 (1.0 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 33% |
| Top scorer | Oscar Taty Maritu (17) | – |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.09 vs 1.58):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Yunnan Yukun or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Liaoning Tieren or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Yunnan Yukun clean sheet | 21% |
| Liaoning Tieren clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Yunnan Yukun is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Yunnan Yukun are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Liaoning Tieren — FAQ
Who will win Yunnan Yukun vs Liaoning Tieren?
Our statistical model makes Yunnan Yukun the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 51%, draw 22%, Liaoning Tieren 26%.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Liaoning Tieren?
The model gives a 65% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Yunnan Yukun vs Liaoning Tieren?
Expected goals are 2.09 for Yunnan Yukun and 1.58 for Liaoning Tieren — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yunnan Yukun vs Liaoning Tieren?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Yunnan Yukun or draw is 71%.