Yunnan Yukun vs Shenzhen Peng City Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Yunnan Yukun vs Shenzhen Peng City
Model pick: Yunnan Yukun (65%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.45 – 0.97
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yunnan Yukun | Shenzhen Peng City |
|---|
| League position | #4 (25 pts) | #10 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.7 | 0.6 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 2.2 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Yunnan Yukun shown at home, Shenzhen Peng City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yunnan Yukun — last 5
DWLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Shenzhen Peng City — last 5
DLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yunnan Yukun (home) | Shenzhen Peng City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-3 in 9 (2.0 / 1.7 goals per game) | 1-1-7 in 9 (0.6 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 72% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% |
| Top scorer | Oscar Taty Maritu (13) | Moraes Wesley (8) |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.45 vs 0.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Yunnan Yukun or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Shenzhen Peng City or draw (X2) | 30% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Yunnan Yukun clean sheet | 38% |
| Shenzhen Peng City clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Yunnan Yukun is the model's most likely outcome at
65%. Yunnan Yukun are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yunnan Yukun vs Shenzhen Peng City — FAQ
Who will win Yunnan Yukun vs Shenzhen Peng City?
Our statistical model makes Yunnan Yukun the most likely result at 65%. Full probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 65%, draw 20%, Shenzhen Peng City 16%.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shenzhen Peng City?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Yunnan Yukun vs Shenzhen Peng City?
Expected goals are 2.45 for Yunnan Yukun and 0.97 for Shenzhen Peng City — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shenzhen Peng City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (10%). Double chance for Yunnan Yukun or draw is 87%.