Yupanqui vs Leones de Rosario Prediction & Preview
Primera C Metro (Argentina) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA C METRO (ARGENTINA)
Yupanqui vs Leones de Rosario
Model pick: Yupanqui (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.48 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yupanqui | Leones de Rosario |
|---|
| League position | #8 (33 pts) | #3 (37 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 23% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 0.6 |
*Yupanqui shown at home, Leones de Rosario shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yupanqui — last 5
DLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 25% of home games go over 2.5.
Leones de Rosario — last 5
DDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yupanqui (home) | Leones de Rosario (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-5-5 in 13 (1.1 / 1.1 goals per game) | 4-5-3 in 12 (0.8 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 0% |
Primera C Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.79
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 31%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 28%
BTTS: 33%
Use these Primera C Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.48 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Yupanqui or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Leones de Rosario or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Yupanqui clean sheet | 36% |
| Leones de Rosario clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Yupanqui is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Yupanqui are backed at home, where they average 0.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yupanqui vs Leones de Rosario — FAQ
Who will win Yupanqui vs Leones de Rosario?
Our statistical model makes Yupanqui the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Yupanqui 45%, draw 27%, Leones de Rosario 28%.
Will both teams score in Yupanqui vs Leones de Rosario?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Yupanqui vs Leones de Rosario?
Expected goals are 1.48 for Yupanqui and 1.03 for Leones de Rosario — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yupanqui vs Leones de Rosario?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Yupanqui or draw is 74%.