Yverdon Sport vs Aarau Prediction & Preview
Challenge League (Switzerland) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHALLENGE LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Yverdon Sport vs Aarau
Model pick: Yverdon Sport (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.96 – 1.47
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yverdon Sport | Aarau |
|---|
| League position | #3 (5 pts) | #6 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Yverdon Sport shown at home, Aarau shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yverdon Sport — last 5
LDDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Aarau — last 5
WLDWD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yverdon Sport (home) | Aarau (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 66% |
Challenge League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.04
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Challenge League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.96 vs 1.47):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Yverdon Sport or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Aarau or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Yverdon Sport clean sheet | 23% |
| Aarau clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Yverdon Sport is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Yverdon Sport are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yverdon Sport vs Aarau — FAQ
Who will win Yverdon Sport vs Aarau?
Our statistical model makes Yverdon Sport the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Yverdon Sport 44%, draw 25%, Aarau 31%.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs Aarau?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Yverdon Sport vs Aarau?
Expected goals are 1.96 for Yverdon Sport and 1.47 for Aarau — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yverdon Sport vs Aarau?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for Yverdon Sport or draw is 71%.