Zagłębie Lubin II vs Jelenia Gora Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Zagłębie Lubin II vs Jelenia Gora
Model pick: Jelenia Gora (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.63 – 0.92
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 32%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Zagłębie Lubin II | Jelenia Gora |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
*Zagłębie Lubin II shown at home, Jelenia Gora shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Zagłębie Lubin II — last 5
DDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Jelenia Gora — last 5
WDWLD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Zagłębie Lubin II (home) | Jelenia Gora (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 80% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.63 vs 0.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (21%) |
| Double chance — Zagłębie Lubin II or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Jelenia Gora or draw (X2) | 76% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 65% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 46% / 54% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 7% / 93% |
| Zagłębie Lubin II clean sheet | 40% |
| Jelenia Gora clean sheet | 53% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jelenia Gora is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Jelenia Gora edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (68% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Zagłębie Lubin II vs Jelenia Gora — FAQ
Who will win Zagłębie Lubin II vs Jelenia Gora?
Our statistical model makes Jelenia Gora the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Zagłębie Lubin II 25%, draw 35%, Jelenia Gora 40%.
Will both teams score in Zagłębie Lubin II vs Jelenia Gora?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Zagłębie Lubin II vs Jelenia Gora?
Expected goals are 0.63 for Zagłębie Lubin II and 0.92 for Jelenia Gora — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Zagłębie Lubin II vs Jelenia Gora?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (21%). Double chance for Zagłębie Lubin II or draw is 59%.