Zagłębie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Jul 27, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Zagłębie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice
Model pick: Zagłębie Lubin (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.16 – 0.99
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Zagłębie Lubin | Piast Gliwice |
|---|
| League position | #13 (0 pts) | #6 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Zagłębie Lubin shown at home, Piast Gliwice shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Zagłębie Lubin — last 5
WWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Piast Gliwice — last 5
LWWDL
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Zagłębie Lubin (home) | Piast Gliwice (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 40% |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.16 vs 0.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Zagłębie Lubin or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Piast Gliwice or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Zagłębie Lubin clean sheet | 37% |
| Piast Gliwice clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Zagłębie Lubin is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Zagłębie Lubin are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Zagłębie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice — FAQ
Who will win Zagłębie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model makes Zagłębie Lubin the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Zagłębie Lubin 38%, draw 30%, Piast Gliwice 32%.
Will both teams score in Zagłębie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Zagłębie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
Expected goals are 1.16 for Zagłębie Lubin and 0.99 for Piast Gliwice — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Zagłębie Lubin vs Piast Gliwice?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Zagłębie Lubin or draw is 69%.