Zalgiris 2 vs Neptunas Prediction & Preview
1 Lyga (Lithuania) · Sep 07, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1 LYGA (LITHUANIA)
Zalgiris 2 vs Neptunas
Model pick: Zalgiris 2 (60%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.86 – 0.74
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Zalgiris 2 | Neptunas |
|---|
| League position | #7 (37 pts) | #4 (41 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.1 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 64% | 55% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Zalgiris 2 shown at home, Neptunas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Zalgiris 2 — last 5
DWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Neptunas — last 5
WWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Zalgiris 2 (home) | Neptunas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-2-2 in 11 (2.1 / 1.3 goals per game) | 6-2-3 in 11 (1.3 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 40% |
1 Lyga (Lithuania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.93
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 15%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 54%
Use these 1 Lyga (Lithuania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.86 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Zalgiris 2 or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Neptunas or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Zalgiris 2 clean sheet | 48% |
| Neptunas clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Zalgiris 2 is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Zalgiris 2 are backed at home, where they average 2.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Zalgiris 2 vs Neptunas — FAQ
Who will win Zalgiris 2 vs Neptunas?
Our statistical model makes Zalgiris 2 the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Zalgiris 2 60%, draw 24%, Neptunas 16%.
Will both teams score in Zalgiris 2 vs Neptunas?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Zalgiris 2 vs Neptunas?
Expected goals are 1.86 for Zalgiris 2 and 0.74 for Neptunas — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Zalgiris 2 vs Neptunas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Zalgiris 2 or draw is 86%.