Zamalek vs Abu Qir Semad Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Egypt) · Sep 08, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (EGYPT)
Zamalek vs Abu Qir Semad
Model pick: Zamalek (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.12 – 0.41
Total goals: 1.5
Over 2.5: 32%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Zamalek | Abu Qir Semad |
|---|
| League position | #1 (43 pts) | #3 (58 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.3 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 70% | 35% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 1.0 |
*Zamalek shown at home, Abu Qir Semad shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Zamalek — last 5
WWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Abu Qir Semad — last 5
WL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Zamalek (home) | Abu Qir Semad (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-3-0 in 10 (1.5 / 0.3 goals per game) | 6-8-3 in 17 (1.1 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 0% |
| Top scorer | Oday Dabbagh (5) | – |
Premier League (Egypt) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Premier League (Egypt) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.12 vs 0.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (24%) |
| Double chance — Zamalek or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Abu Qir Semad or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 7% / 93% |
| Zamalek clean sheet | 66% |
| Abu Qir Semad clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Zamalek is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Zamalek are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (68% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Zamalek vs Abu Qir Semad — FAQ
Who will win Zamalek vs Abu Qir Semad?
Our statistical model makes Zamalek the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Zamalek 51%, draw 34%, Abu Qir Semad 16%.
Will both teams score in Zamalek vs Abu Qir Semad?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Zamalek vs Abu Qir Semad?
Expected goals are 1.12 for Zamalek and 0.41 for Abu Qir Semad — about 1.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Zamalek vs Abu Qir Semad?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (24%). Double chance for Zamalek or draw is 86%.