Zamalek vs Al Ittihad Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Egypt) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (EGYPT)
Zamalek vs Al Ittihad
Model pick: Zamalek (60%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.79 – 0.64
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Zamalek | Al Ittihad |
|---|
| League position | #1 (43 pts) | #15 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 70% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
*Zamalek shown at home, Al Ittihad shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Zamalek — last 5
WDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Al Ittihad — last 5
DWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Zamalek (home) | Al Ittihad (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-3-0 in 10 (1.5 / 0.3 goals per game) | 2-1-7 in 10 (0.6 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 41% |
| Top scorer | Oday Dabbagh (5) | Fady Farid (4) |
Premier League (Egypt) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Premier League (Egypt) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.79 vs 0.64):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Zamalek or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Al Ittihad or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Zamalek clean sheet | 53% |
| Al Ittihad clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Zamalek is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Zamalek are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Zamalek vs Al Ittihad — FAQ
Who will win Zamalek vs Al Ittihad?
Our statistical model makes Zamalek the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Zamalek 60%, draw 25%, Al Ittihad 14%.
Will both teams score in Zamalek vs Al Ittihad?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Zamalek vs Al Ittihad?
Expected goals are 1.79 for Zamalek and 0.64 for Al Ittihad — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Zamalek vs Al Ittihad?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Zamalek or draw is 87%.