Zamora vs UCV Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Venezuela) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (VENEZUELA)
Zamora vs UCV
Model pick: UCV (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.19
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Zamora | UCV |
|---|
| League position | #9 (17 pts) | #3 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.4 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
*Zamora shown at home, UCV shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Zamora — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
UCV — last 5
LLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Zamora (home) | UCV (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-3-1 in 6 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (0.7 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 35% |
| Top scorer | – | Camilo Zapata Londono Juan (1) |
Primera Division (Venezuela) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Venezuela) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.15 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Zamora or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — UCV or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Zamora clean sheet | 30% |
| UCV clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
UCV is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, UCV edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Zamora vs UCV — FAQ
Who will win Zamora vs UCV?
Our statistical model makes UCV the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Zamora 35%, draw 29%, UCV 36%.
Will both teams score in Zamora vs UCV?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Zamora vs UCV?
Expected goals are 1.15 for Zamora and 1.19 for UCV — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Zamora vs UCV?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Zamora or draw is 63%.