Zarzis vs Monastir Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (TUNISIA)
Zarzis vs Monastir
Model pick: Monastir (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.77 – 1.02
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 37%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Zarzis | Monastir |
|---|
| League position | #8 (3 pts) | #5 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 0.6 |
*Zarzis shown at home, Monastir shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Zarzis — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 56% of the time; 23% of home games go over 2.5.
Monastir — last 5
LLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 49% of the time; 32% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Zarzis (home) | Monastir (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 56% | 49% |
| Both teams scored | 26% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% | 32% |
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.98
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 37%
Use these Ligue 1 (Tunisia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.77 vs 1.02):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (17%) |
| Double chance — Zarzis or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Monastir or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 53% / 47% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| Zarzis clean sheet | 36% |
| Monastir clean sheet | 46% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Monastir is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Monastir edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (63% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Zarzis vs Monastir — FAQ
Who will win Zarzis vs Monastir?
Our statistical model makes Monastir the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Zarzis 28%, draw 33%, Monastir 39%.
Will both teams score in Zarzis vs Monastir?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Zarzis vs Monastir?
Expected goals are 0.77 for Zarzis and 1.02 for Monastir — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Zarzis vs Monastir?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (17%). Double chance for Zarzis or draw is 59%.