Zawisza vs Zielona Gora Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Zawisza vs Zielona Gora
Model pick: Zielona Gora (71%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.67 – 2.45
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Zawisza | Zielona Gora |
|---|
| League position | #10 (4 pts) | #7 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.5 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
*Zawisza shown at home, Zielona Gora shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Zawisza — last 5
WLDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Zielona Gora — last 5
WLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Zawisza (home) | Zielona Gora (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 100% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.67 vs 2.45):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (13%) |
| Double chance — Zawisza or draw (1X) | 23% |
| Double chance — Zielona Gora or draw (X2) | 92% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Zawisza clean sheet | 9% |
| Zielona Gora clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Zielona Gora is the model's most likely outcome at
71%. Despite playing away, Zielona Gora edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Zawisza vs Zielona Gora — FAQ
Who will win Zawisza vs Zielona Gora?
Our statistical model makes Zielona Gora the most likely result at 71%. Full probabilities: Zawisza 11%, draw 18%, Zielona Gora 71%.
Will both teams score in Zawisza vs Zielona Gora?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Zawisza vs Zielona Gora?
Expected goals are 0.67 for Zawisza and 2.45 for Zielona Gora — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Zawisza vs Zielona Gora?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (13%). Double chance for Zawisza or draw is 23%.