Zemun vs Crvena Zvezda Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Zemun vs Crvena Zvezda
Model pick: Crvena Zvezda (92%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.31 – 3.97
Total goals: 4.3
Over 2.5: 69%
Both teams score: 40%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Zemun | Crvena Zvezda |
|---|
| League position | #14 (1 pts) | #15 (14 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.0 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 0.6 |
*Zemun shown at home, Crvena Zvezda shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Zemun — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Crvena Zvezda — last 5
LWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 44% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Zemun (home) | Crvena Zvezda (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-2 in 3 (0.7 / 1.3 goals per game) | 2-0-2 in 4 (0.8 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 67% |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.31 vs 3.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-3 (15%) |
| Double chance — Zemun or draw (1X) | 5% |
| Double chance — Crvena Zvezda or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 96% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 93% / 7% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Zemun clean sheet | 2% |
| Crvena Zvezda clean sheet | 73% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Crvena Zvezda is the model's most likely outcome at
92%. Despite playing away, Crvena Zvezda edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.3, this shapes as an open game (69% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Zemun vs Crvena Zvezda — FAQ
Who will win Zemun vs Crvena Zvezda?
Our statistical model makes Crvena Zvezda the most likely result at 92%. Full probabilities: Zemun 2%, draw 6%, Crvena Zvezda 92%.
Will both teams score in Zemun vs Crvena Zvezda?
The model gives a 40% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Zemun vs Crvena Zvezda?
Expected goals are 0.31 for Zemun and 3.97 for Crvena Zvezda — about 4.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Zemun vs Crvena Zvezda?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-3 (15%). Double chance for Zemun or draw is 5%.