Zielona Gora vs Olimpia Grudziądz Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Zielona Gora vs Olimpia Grudziądz
Model pick: Olimpia Grudziądz (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.96 – 1.16
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Zielona Gora | Olimpia Grudziądz |
|---|
| League position | #11 (0 pts) | #6 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 2.4 / 1.8 |
*Zielona Gora shown at home, Olimpia Grudziądz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Zielona Gora — last 5
WLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Olimpia Grudziądz — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 61% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Zielona Gora (home) | Olimpia Grudziądz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 61% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.96 vs 1.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Zielona Gora or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Olimpia Grudziądz or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Zielona Gora clean sheet | 31% |
| Olimpia Grudziądz clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Olimpia Grudziądz is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Olimpia Grudziądz edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Zielona Gora vs Olimpia Grudziądz — FAQ
Who will win Zielona Gora vs Olimpia Grudziądz?
Our statistical model makes Olimpia Grudziądz the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Zielona Gora 30%, draw 30%, Olimpia Grudziądz 39%.
Will both teams score in Zielona Gora vs Olimpia Grudziądz?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Zielona Gora vs Olimpia Grudziądz?
Expected goals are 0.96 for Zielona Gora and 1.16 for Olimpia Grudziądz — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Zielona Gora vs Olimpia Grudziądz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Zielona Gora or draw is 60%.