Zielona Gora vs Świt Skolwin Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Zielona Gora vs Świt Skolwin
Model pick: Zielona Gora (68%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.95 – 1.19
Total goals: 4.1
Over 2.5: 68%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Zielona Gora | Świt Skolwin |
|---|
| League position | #7 (9 pts) | #18 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 1.2 | 0.3 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 2.6 |
*Zielona Gora shown at home, Świt Skolwin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Zielona Gora — last 5
DWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Świt Skolwin — last 5
LLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Zielona Gora (home) | Świt Skolwin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-3-0 in 4 (2.5 / 1.2 goals per game) | 0-1-2 in 3 (0.3 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 62% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.95 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — Zielona Gora or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Świt Skolwin or draw (X2) | 27% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 92% / 8% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Zielona Gora clean sheet | 30% |
| Świt Skolwin clean sheet | 5% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Zielona Gora is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Zielona Gora are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.1, this shapes as an open game (68% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Zielona Gora vs Świt Skolwin — FAQ
Who will win Zielona Gora vs Świt Skolwin?
Our statistical model makes Zielona Gora the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Zielona Gora 68%, draw 17%, Świt Skolwin 15%.
Will both teams score in Zielona Gora vs Świt Skolwin?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Zielona Gora vs Świt Skolwin?
Expected goals are 2.95 for Zielona Gora and 1.19 for Świt Skolwin — about 4.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Zielona Gora vs Świt Skolwin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (8%). Double chance for Zielona Gora or draw is 88%.