Znicz Pruszków vs Olimpia Grudziądz Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Znicz Pruszków vs Olimpia Grudziądz
Model pick: Znicz Pruszków (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.44 – 1.19
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Znicz Pruszków | Olimpia Grudziądz |
|---|
| League position | #2 (9 pts) | #14 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.5 | 1.3 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 |
*Znicz Pruszków shown at home, Olimpia Grudziądz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Znicz Pruszków — last 5
DWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Olimpia Grudziądz — last 5
WLDWD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 61% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Znicz Pruszków (home) | Olimpia Grudziądz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-2-1 in 3 (1.3 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 61% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.44 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Znicz Pruszków or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Olimpia Grudziądz or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Znicz Pruszków clean sheet | 30% |
| Olimpia Grudziądz clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Znicz Pruszków is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Znicz Pruszków are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Znicz Pruszków vs Olimpia Grudziądz — FAQ
Who will win Znicz Pruszków vs Olimpia Grudziądz?
Our statistical model makes Znicz Pruszków the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Znicz Pruszków 41%, draw 27%, Olimpia Grudziądz 32%.
Will both teams score in Znicz Pruszków vs Olimpia Grudziądz?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Znicz Pruszków vs Olimpia Grudziądz?
Expected goals are 1.44 for Znicz Pruszków and 1.19 for Olimpia Grudziądz — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Znicz Pruszków vs Olimpia Grudziądz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Znicz Pruszków or draw is 69%.