ZPC Kariba vs Simba Bhora Prediction & Preview
Premier Soccer League (Zimbabwe) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER SOCCER LEAGUE (ZIMBABWE)
ZPC Kariba vs Simba Bhora
Model pick: Simba Bhora (58%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.77 – 1.81
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| ZPC Kariba | Simba Bhora |
|---|
| League position | #13 (28 pts) | #11 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 23% | 23% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*ZPC Kariba shown at home, Simba Bhora shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
ZPC Kariba — last 5
WWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Simba Bhora — last 5
DDLDL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | ZPC Kariba (home) | Simba Bhora (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-8-2 in 13 (0.6 / 0.5 goals per game) | 3-5-5 in 13 (0.8 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
Premier Soccer League (Zimbabwe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.9
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 27%
BTTS: 33%
Use these Premier Soccer League (Zimbabwe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.77 vs 1.81):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — ZPC Kariba or draw (1X) | 38% |
| Double chance — Simba Bhora or draw (X2) | 85% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| ZPC Kariba clean sheet | 16% |
| Simba Bhora clean sheet | 46% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Simba Bhora is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Despite playing away, Simba Bhora edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ ZPC Kariba vs Simba Bhora — FAQ
Who will win ZPC Kariba vs Simba Bhora?
Our statistical model makes Simba Bhora the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: ZPC Kariba 18%, draw 24%, Simba Bhora 58%.
Will both teams score in ZPC Kariba vs Simba Bhora?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in ZPC Kariba vs Simba Bhora?
Expected goals are 0.77 for ZPC Kariba and 1.81 for Simba Bhora — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in ZPC Kariba vs Simba Bhora?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for ZPC Kariba or draw is 38%.