Last season explains half a Premier League season and a ninth of a League Two one
League Two 2026/27, matchday one · 15 August 2026 ·
twelve matches, and the reason none of them tells you much. Updated 17 August 2026, 09:29 UTC.
Everyone reads the opening table anyway, so here is what it is worth. Measured
inside League Two alone — 624 club-seasons — the goal difference from matchday
one correlates with points per game across the rest of that season at +0.19, and
last season correlates at +0.34. That is 3.6 per cent and 11.3 per
cent of what follows. In the Premier League the same two numbers are 10.8 and
54.0 per cent. The division you are reading about is the one where the past explains
least.
division
matchday 1 explains
last season explains
Premier League
10.8%
54.0%
Championship
1.2%
12.3%
League One
1.7%
10.4%
League Two
3.6%
11.3%
National League
3.7%
20.1%
Correlation between a club's points per game in the rest of the season and
(left) its matchday-one goal difference, (right) its points per game the season before, then
squared. 448–624 club-seasons a division, all seasons we hold.
Why this is lower than the same claim for League One. Our League One
page put last season at 21.3 per cent, pooling the EFL and the Premier League into one sample.
Pooling divisions inflates the number, because it also measures the gap between
divisions. Measured inside a single division — the only way a League Two club is actually
being judged — it is 11.3.
So who was misread on Saturday
If the result explains 3.6 per cent, the useful question is not who won but who made the most
and took the least. Deserved goals are what the shots on target were worth;
luck is the actual goal margin minus the deserved one. Positive luck means a club took
more than it made.
club
pts
score
deserved
luck
Newport
3
3–0
1.88–0.00
+1.12
Accrington
1
2–2
3.13–1.56
-1.57
Barnet
3
3–1
2.50–0.94
+0.44
Northampton
1
0–0
1.25–0.00
-1.25
Fleetwood
3
1–0
2.19–0.94
-0.25
York City
3
3–2
1.56–0.94
+0.38
Gillingham
0
0–3
2.50–1.88
-3.62
Grimsby
3
1–0
1.25–0.63
+0.38
Oldham
3
2–0
1.56–1.25
+1.69
Tranmere
3
2–0
1.25–0.94
+1.69
Crewe
3
1–0
1.25–0.94
+0.69
Rotherham
0
1–2
1.56–1.25
-1.31
Port Vale
0
0–2
1.25–1.56
-1.69
Shrewsbury
0
0–2
0.94–1.25
-1.69
Crawley
0
0–1
0.94–1.25
-0.69
Cheltenham
3
2–1
1.25–1.56
+1.31
Exeter
0
0–1
0.63–1.25
-0.38
Bristol Rovers
0
2–3
0.94–1.56
-0.38
Walsall
3
3–0
1.88–2.50
+3.62
Swindon
1
0–0
0.00–1.25
+1.25
Chesterfield
0
0–1
0.94–2.19
+0.25
Salford
0
1–3
0.94–2.50
-0.44
Colchester
1
2–2
1.56–3.13
+1.57
Rochdale
0
0–3
0.00–1.88
-1.12
Gillingham lost 0–3 at home having had more shots on target than Walsall
(eight to six, 2.50 deserved goals to 1.88). In this division, losing by three or more while
out-shooting the other side on target has happened 131 times in 28,472 club-matches —
about one in 217. With a margin of two shots on target or better, as here, it is
one in 375. Walsall's +3.62 and Gillingham's −3.62 are the largest gaps of the
round in both directions.
Accrington deserved the most in the round and drew. Ten shots on target to five,
3.13 deserved goals to 1.56, and Colchester left The Wham Stadium with a point from a
2–2. The reverse of Gillingham, one division of luck apart.
Swindon took a point without a single shot on target
Northampton 0–0 Swindon: four shots on target to none, ten corners to one, and one point
each. A club-match with zero shots on target happens 604 times in 28,472 in League
Two — one in 47 — and 179 of those still take a point, which is one in 159.
Fifteen of them have been won outright.
Rochdale did the same thing and lost 0–3. Promoted as National League runners-up,
they held 68 per cent of the ball at Newport and did not put one shot on target. It is the
cleanest illustration of a number this division keeps producing: across 6,616 club-matches
here, possession and goals scored correlate at r = −0.10. On Saturday the side with
more of the ball won four, drew one and lost six.
The four who came down took one point of twelve
Exeter, Port Vale, Rotherham and Northampton finished 21st, 22nd, 23rd and 24th in League One
and all four went into this round. They took one point from four matches — 0.25 a
game. Across 25 previous seasons, clubs relegated into League Two have averaged
1.27 points a game in the opening round, and only one of those 25 seasons was this
bad or worse (2020/21, 0.17). Call it one in 26 — and remember the first paragraph before
reading anything into it. We have measured the longer version of this too: how a club played on
the way down correlates +0.05 with what it does in the division below, which is
no signal at all.
The two who came up did better: York City, National League champions, won 3–2
against Bristol Rovers with 70 per cent of the ball, and Rochdale lost.
The round itself was completely ordinary
106 shots on target is 4.42 a side, against a long-run League Two average of
4.64. 29 goals from 106 shots on target is 27.4 per cent — the
division's all-time figure is 27.4 per cent. Not close to it: it is it. Of
569 earlier days with exactly twelve matches in this division, 301 were as sharp or
sharper, so this is the median round in the most literal sense. 29 goals is below the
median day's 31, which 43 per cent of comparable days also managed.
7 home wins · 2 draws · 3 away wins · 29 goals,
12 of them before half-time · 205 shots off target · 1167 approaches to
the box · 132 corners · 48 yellow cards, 4 red · 73,677
watching across all 12 grounds.
Seven home wins out of twelve looks like a pattern and is not: the home win rate here is
42.7 per cent over 14,236 matches, and seven or more home wins on a twelve-match day has
happened 111 times in 571 — one day in five. Corners came in at 11.0 a match
against a league average of 10.6. The 48 yellow cards are the one number above its long-run
line (4.00 a match against 3.03), but that line is old: the last four League Two seasons
have run 3.41, 3.93, 3.96 and 3.70. Against those, Saturday was normal.
Crawley 0–1 Crewe had three red cards
Two for Crawley, one for Crewe, and Crewe won it. Three or more red cards in one League Two
match has happened 31 times in 14,239 — one in 459. The round's total of four is not
unusual at all (one twelve-match day in five reaches four), so the match is the story and the
round is not.
How this is measured, and what it cannot do
Deserved goals are not expected goals. They are our own number: 0.313
goals per shot on target, fitted on 6,592 League Two club-matches. Deliberately simple,
and on our data it tracks goals better (r = 0.57) than the expected-goals figure we receive for
this division (r = 0.45, on the 646 matches where we have any). It knows nothing about where a
shot was taken from.
What is missing. No expected goals, no shot locations and no player
ratings exist for League Two this round: the detailed feed for this division has been frozen
since 14 August, the day before kick-off. The source also does not split shots, attacks or
possession by half, so the half tables below carry goals and corners for every match and shots
only where the minute-by-minute feed happens to include them. Nothing is estimated.
One fixture id returned a match from another division. The call for
Gillingham–Walsall came back as Leyton Orient–Sheffield Wednesday, a League One
match. Ids in this feed are not unique, so every response is checked against the club names we
stored; the wrong one is thrown away and the fallback id is tried instead. Left in, this page
would have reported a League One result as part of a League Two round.
Sources. Match statistics from our own feed. Historical rates, last
season's tables and the correlations above are our own calculations over the seasons we hold;
no third-party table is reproduced here.
Every match, if you want to check
The scorelines and the raw match statistics below are on any live-score site.
They are here so every number above can be traced back to the match it came from.
On shots on target the two sides were level (1.56 deserved goals to 1.25) and the scoreline was not. Finishing decided this, not chance creation. Conversion: 2 goals from 9 shots on target (22.2%), against a League Two average of 27.4%. Port Vale held 60% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.10.
Newport won it and deserved it (1.88 to 0.00). Conversion: 3 goals from 6 shots on target (50.0%), against a League Two average of 27.4%. Rochdale held 68% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.10.
York City won it and deserved it (1.56 to 0.94). Conversion: 5 goals from 8 shots on target (62.5%), against a League Two average of 27.4%. York City held 70% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.10.
On shots on target the two sides were level (1.25 deserved goals to 0.94) and the scoreline was not. Finishing decided this, not chance creation. Conversion: 2 goals from 7 shots on target (28.6%), against a League Two average of 27.4%.
Gillingham deserved more (2.50 to 1.88) and did not win it. Conversion: 3 goals from 14 shots on target (21.4%), against a League Two average of 27.4%.
half-time 0–0 · 6 134 attendance · referee A. Humphries · The Broadfield Stadium
Lee Bell (4-4-2)
last season: Crawley 22nd in League Two on 0.87 points a game · Crewe 11th in League Two on 1.46
Full match
0
goals
1
3
shots on target
4
6
shots off target
12
9
shots total
16
0.94
deserved goals
1.25
43
approaches to the box
72
82
attacks
68
4
corners
11
48
possession %
52
2
yellow cards
5
2
RED CARDS
1
6
substitutions
3
First half
0
goals
0
0
corners
3
Second half
0
goals
1
0
corners
8
The feed does not split shots, attacks or possession by half for this match, so only goals and corners are shown above. Nothing is estimated.
Goals
90'Josh March (Crewe) (assist J. Tabiner)· 29 · forward · €165k
On shots on target the two sides were level (0.94 deserved goals to 1.25) and the scoreline was not. Finishing decided this, not chance creation. Conversion: 1 goals from 7 shots on target (14.3%), against a League Two average of 27.4%.
half-time 0–1 · 7 856 attendance · referee A. Dale · SMH Group Stadium
Paul Cook (4-2-3-1) against Matthew Lawlor (3-1-4-2)
last season: Chesterfield 6th in League Two on 1.72 points a game · Fleetwood 15th in League Two on 1.33
Full match
0
goals
1
3
shots on target
7
12
shots off target
7
15
shots total
14
0.94
deserved goals
2.19
80
approaches to the box
33
115
attacks
81
5
corners
1
66
possession %
34
1
yellow cards
3
5
substitutions
3
First half
0
goals
1
3
corners
0
Second half
0
goals
0
2
corners
0
The feed does not split shots, attacks or possession by half for this match, so only goals and corners are shown above. Nothing is estimated.
Goals
35'Ched Evans (Fleetwood) · 37 · forward · €26k
Fleetwood won it and deserved it (2.19 to 0.94). Conversion: 1 goals from 10 shots on target (10.0%), against a League Two average of 27.4%. Chesterfield held 66% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.10.
62'Jili Buyabu (Rotherham) (assist F. Tavares)· 22 · defender
71'J. Evans (Cheltenham) (assist R. Cundy)· on at 46'
On shots on target the two sides were level (1.25 deserved goals to 1.56) and the scoreline was not. Finishing decided this, not chance creation. Conversion: 3 goals from 9 shots on target (33.3%), against a League Two average of 27.4%. Rotherham held 60% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.10.