Bologna vs Sassuolo Prediction & Preview
SerieA · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIEA
Bologna vs Sassuolo
Model pick: Bologna (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.56 – 1.08
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Bologna | Sassuolo |
|---|
| League position | #10 (15 pts) | #11 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 2.0 |
*Bologna shown at home, Sassuolo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Bologna — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Sassuolo — last 5
LLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Bologna (home) | Sassuolo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-3-0 in 4 (1.8 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 62% |
| Top scorer | Federico Bernardeschi (5) | – |
SerieA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these SerieA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.56 vs 1.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Bologna or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Sassuolo or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Bologna clean sheet | 34% |
| Sassuolo clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bologna is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Bologna are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Bologna vs Sassuolo — FAQ
Who will win Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model makes Bologna the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Bologna 48%, draw 27%, Sassuolo 25%.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Expected goals are 1.56 for Bologna and 1.08 for Sassuolo — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Bologna or draw is 74%.