Újpest vs Debrecen Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 13:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
Újpest vs Debrecen
Model pick: Debrecen (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.45 – 1.54
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Újpest | Debrecen |
|---|
| League position | #12 (0 pts) | #4 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.0 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Újpest shown at home, Debrecen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Újpest — last 5
LLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Debrecen — last 5
DLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Újpest (home) | Debrecen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.45 vs 1.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Újpest or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Debrecen or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Újpest clean sheet | 21% |
| Debrecen clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Debrecen is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Debrecen edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Újpest vs Debrecen — FAQ
Who will win Újpest vs Debrecen?
Our statistical model makes Debrecen the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Újpest 36%, draw 26%, Debrecen 39%.
Will both teams score in Újpest vs Debrecen?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Újpest vs Debrecen?
Expected goals are 1.45 for Újpest and 1.54 for Debrecen — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Újpest vs Debrecen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Újpest or draw is 60%.