Roma vs Atalanta Prediction & Preview
SerieA · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIEA
Roma vs Atalanta
Model pick: Roma (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.24
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Roma | Atalanta |
|---|
| League position | #8 (16 pts) | #15 (13 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 2.0 | 1.4 / 0.2 |
*Roma shown at home, Atalanta shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Roma — last 5
LWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Atalanta — last 5
WWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Roma (home) | Atalanta (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-2 in 4 (1.2 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-0-2 in 4 (1.0 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Lorenzo Pellegrini (3) | Lazar Samardzic (4) |
SerieA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these SerieA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 1.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Roma or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Atalanta or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Roma clean sheet | 29% |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Roma is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Roma are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Roma vs Atalanta — FAQ
Who will win Roma vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model makes Roma the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Roma 46%, draw 27%, Atalanta 27%.
Will both teams score in Roma vs Atalanta?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Roma vs Atalanta?
Expected goals are 1.43 for Roma and 1.24 for Atalanta — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Roma vs Atalanta?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Roma or draw is 67%.