Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction & Preview
SerieA · Aug 24, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIEA
Roma vs Fiorentina
Model pick: Roma (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.57 – 1.04
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Roma | Fiorentina |
|---|
| League position | #8 (16 pts) | #15 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.6 | 2.0 / 1.4 |
*Roma shown at home, Fiorentina shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Roma — last 5
DLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Fiorentina — last 5
LWDDW
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Roma (home) | Fiorentina (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-2 in 4 (1.2 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.3 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Lorenzo Pellegrini (3) | – |
SerieA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these SerieA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.57 vs 1.04):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Roma or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Fiorentina or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Roma clean sheet | 35% |
| Fiorentina clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Roma is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Roma are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Roma vs Fiorentina — FAQ
Who will win Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model makes Roma the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Roma 56%, draw 25%, Fiorentina 20%.
Will both teams score in Roma vs Fiorentina?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Roma vs Fiorentina?
Expected goals are 1.57 for Roma and 1.04 for Fiorentina — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Roma vs Fiorentina?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Roma or draw is 75%.