Santos vs Mirassol Prediction & Preview
BrazilA · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BRAZILA
Santos vs Mirassol
Model pick: Santos (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.34
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Santos | Mirassol |
|---|
| League position | #14 (25 pts) | #16 (23 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 10% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 2.2 |
*Santos shown at home, Mirassol shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Santos — last 5
DWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Mirassol — last 5
DLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Santos (home) | Mirassol (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-4 in 12 (1.4 / 1.3 goals per game) | 1-2-7 in 10 (0.9 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 33% |
| Top scorer | Barbosa Gabriel (8) | – |
BrazilA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these BrazilA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 1.34):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Santos or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Mirassol or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Santos clean sheet | 26% |
| Mirassol clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Santos is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Santos are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Santos vs Mirassol — FAQ
Who will win Santos vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model makes Santos the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Santos 46%, draw 27%, Mirassol 27%.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Mirassol?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Santos vs Mirassol?
Expected goals are 1.43 for Santos and 1.34 for Mirassol — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Santos vs Mirassol?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Santos or draw is 65%.